BOSTON -- 2-15-07 7:31am

Thanks everyone, this was a lot of fun!

I hope you enjoyed it.

If you want to relive the storm you can scroll down the pages and see how the forecast evolved and what was happening during the course of the Valentine's Day Nor’easter.

I’ll see you Saturday and Sunday morning on Weekend EyeOpener.

Now all we need is some melting to get rid of that ice.

-Mike

2-14-07 9:42pm

Time for my last update of the evening. It looks like everything is winding down. And the snowfall totals across southern New Hampshire were pretty impressive. Get the ski/boards sharpened and waxed up!

The slush has re-frozen. If you haven’t walked outside in the last couple of hours be careful…everything is very slippery with black ice. The less traveled road will still be slick tomorrow morning.

Skies will start to clear after midnight tonight.

Strong westerly winds will howl overnight. Gust to 45mph are possible toward the Cape and along the coast.

If you’ve been watching your barometer fall today, watch it tonight. It will rise very rapidly as the storm departs.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower teens in Boston and the single digits outside of the city. Add the winds into the equation and Wind Chill Indexes will be around -10 tomorrow morning. Cold stuff and there may be Wind Chill Advisories issued toward dawn. We’ll likely see some late school starts tomorrow because of the ice. Check in with David Brown on the EyeOpener starting at 4:56am for the latest.

Expect sunshine for tomorrow. With a slight risk of flurries well northwest of Boston tomorrow. A small disturbance will cut through the region during the afternoon and that may trigger the snow. Don’t expect any accumulation from that one. Our next chance of snow is Sunday and it’s only a slight risk of light snow.

It’s been a pleasure to serve you these past 48-hours. Hopefully we’ll do this again for the next storm. As always we welcome your feedback on what we are doing at thebostonchannel.com. Now it’s off to catch a new episode of Lost. I heard the show is heading back to the original survivors. I’ve missed Hurley.

Sleep well and be careful with the slick roads in the morning.

2-14-07 9:12pm

Here are some updated snowfall totals. Pretty impressive stuff across southwestern NH.

MASSACHUSETTS

...BRISTOL COUNTY... TAUNTON 2.1 700 PM 2/14 NWS OFFICE

...ESSEX COUNTY... GEORGETOWN 8.0 453 PM 2/14 HAVERHILL 8.0 440 PM 2/14 AMESBURY 7.3 250 PM 2/14 METHUEN 6.5 620 PM 2/14

ANDOVER 6.0 435 PM 2/14

IPSWICH 3.7 641 PM 2/14 LYNN 2.5 110 PM 2/14

ROCKPORT 2.5 245 PM 2/14 PEABODY 2.0 400 PM 2/14

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...

GREENFIELD 12.0 630 PM 2/14 ASHFIELD 11.0 248 PM 2/14

CHARLEMONT 9.0 430 PM 2/14 TURNERS FALLS 8.0 212 PM 2/14 LEVERETT 6.5 350 PM 2/14

...HAMPDEN COUNTY...

CHESTER 9.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL HOLYOKE 5.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL WILBRAHAM 5.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL SOUTHWICK 4.8 415 PM 2/14 CHICOPEE 4.0 210 PM 2/14

WESTFIELD 3.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL

EAST LONGMEADOW 3.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL WEST SPRINGFIELD 2.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL

...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...

GOSHEN 11.0 545 PM 2/14 HUNTINGTON 9.0 728 PM 2/14

SOUTH HADLEY 4.0 730 PM 2/14 FINAL WARE 3.5 515 PM 2/14

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

LOWELL 8.0 345 PM 2/14

PEPPERELL 7.0 521 PM 2/14

TOWNSEND 6.8 430 PM 2/14 NORTH BILLERICA 6.5 625 PM 2/14 BILLERICA 6.0 615 PM 2/14

CONCORD 6.0 154 PM 2/14 LITTLETON 6.0 400 PM 2/14

WESTFORD 6.0 300 PM 2/14

AYER 5.8 151 PM 2/14

TEWKSBURY 5.8 645 PM 2/14

LINCOLN 5.5 350 PM 2/14

CHELMSFORD 5.3 259 PM 2/14

WAKEFIELD 4.8 633 PM 2/14

NATICK 4.5 230 PM 2/14

READING 4.5 730 PM 2/14 FINAL HUDSON 4.2 115 PM 2/14

FRAMINGHAM 4.0 205 PM 2/14

STONEHAM 3.8 730 PM 2/14

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

BLUE HILLS 1.6 100 PM 2/14

...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EAST BOSTON 2.5 700 PM 2/14 LOGAN AIRPORT

...WORCESTER COUNTY...

WORCESTER 9.0 700 PM 2/14 ORH AIRPORT ATHOL 8.0 647 PM 2/14

HUBBARDSTON 7.5 229 PM 2/14 PHILLIPSTON 7.2 630 PM 2/14

FITCHBURG 5.8 213 PM 2/14

GARDNER 5.5 212 PM 2/14

MILFORD 4.0 344 PM 2/14

NORTH GRAFTON 4.0 333 PM 2/14

WEST WARREN 3.5 640 PM 2/14

LEOMINSTER 3.0 720 AM 2/14 SHREWSBURY 3.0 130 PM 2/14

SOUTHBRIDGE 2.2 500 PM 2/14

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...

SWANZEY 15.0 800 PM 2/14 WALPOLE 14.5 435 PM 2/14

RINDGE 12.0 800 PM 2/14

TROY 8.5 138 PM 2/14

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

NEW IPSWICH 14.0 800 PM 2/14 NH DOT

PETERBOROUGH 12.0 526 PM 2/14 SOUTH WEARE 9.2 540 PM 2/14

HILLSBOROUGH 9.0 340 PM 2/14

HUDSON 8.5 335 PM 2/14

WILTON 8.5 315 PM 2/14

MILFORD 8.0 405 PM 2/14

MERRIMACK 7.0 315 PM 2/14

MASON 6.0 145 PM 2/14 NASHUA 4.9 525 PM 2/14

BEDFORD 4.5 300 PM 2/14 NH DOT

RHODE ISLAND

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...

WOONSOCKET 3.0 523 PM 2/14 CUMBERLAND 2.0 1146 AM 2/14

NORTH SMITHFIELD 2.0 120 PM 2/14

2-14-07 8:21pm

CJ19: You’re getting the very last of the sleet right now. The wind and cold will be with you the rest of the night. In fact the wind may keep you awake tonight.

Shelley: You should be just about done with the precip. As I told CJ, the wind and cold will be the big story through tomorrow. And be careful when you send the kids out the door in the morning. It’s slick!

Maria: This snow was awful for an 8-year old. Even in those area that picked up 8”-10” it was the wrong kind of snow. Too wet to sled in and too slushy to make a respectable snowman. I don’t have any good news for snowman building. A few flurries Sunday but nothing major. However, ice skating should be pretty good. (Possibly down the sidewalk in the morning.)

2-14-07 7:36pm

The “Flash Freeze” is on! The line has just passed through Scituate headed for Plymouth and the Cape. Any wet surfaces are quickly turning to ice. Be very careful walking outside.

2-14-07 7:02pm

Hey drgonzo77: I love it here. How could I leave during a New England winter? This is the SuperBowl for weather forecasters.

Walrus: I think you’re thinking of the arctic outbreak from the winter of 1981-1982. It was a brutal cold wave that hit most of the country. We got cold but it didn’t hang in as long at the one from January 2005. That’s the record for below 32 for Boston; 13 days January1/16-1/28, 2005.

Thanks eeny, I’m actually having breakfast with Frank and Karen tomorrow morning. I’ll pass on your best wishes to them. If you’re up early Saturday and Sunday morning I’m forecasting for the Weekend EyeOpener. Steve Lacy and Shiba Russell anchor the show and they’re are a great team. I’m looking forward to working with them.

2-14-07 6:34pm

We have one last batch of light snow and mixed precip moving through. It extends from the Worcester area up toward southwestern NH. The area is going to pinwheel to the northeast over the next 90-minutes. The south edge of it might just clip the Boston Metro area as it moves up toward Cape Ann. South of the Mass Pike the drizzle will be ending shortly. Temperatures have already started to drop. Reading were in the mid 40’s in Marshfield at 6pm and have now have dropped to 36 in Scituate. The cold air will continue to push toward the Cape and re-freeze area roads. There will be no melting tomorrow. It’s going to be cold and windy. Highs in the mid 20’s. Winds gusting from the northwest at 40mph+. Bundle up and be careful when you step outside. There is going to be a lot of ice.

2-14-07 5:38pm

RedSox28: I do think there are going to be some school delays tomorrow morning. Re-frozen ice will be the biggest problem, not the snow. Get the homework done anyway, just in case. Also get it done before 10pm. Lost is on tonight.

Eddie45: Thanks. Everyone here at 5 has been so nice. I do miss my friends at 56, but this is like a whole new group of friends that I've just discovered. It's Great To Be Here.

2-14-07 5:32pm

Hi Dianne: The sleet should be ending shortly. Spring ‘s arrival may be a bit more challenging. The Ground Hog said winter was over…professional courtesy doesn’t allow me to voice my true feeling about the rodent.

Kgross: You’re just about done in Worcester. Just be careful about the re-freeze in a few hours.

Penguin: Andover is almost out of it. We still see a little on radar but it’s quickly pulling northward.

Dan: The temperature ranges today are really weird. It’s low 40’s just south of Boston right now.

RoseinFlorida: I told you not to move to the Sunshine State. Oh sure you’ll be at the beach tomorrow and we’ll be slipping on the re-frozen slush, but that’s what makes New Englanders so hardy. Enjoy and don’t forget the sunscreen.

Ellen: Thanks for the kind words. This blog thing is something new. We’ve never done it to this level so we’re still working out the kinks. Actually when you see a few minute gap in my responses I’m off sneaking a nap. I’ll rest later tonight when it’s all over. Be Safe.

Danny: I know what you mean the snow/sleet and rain has created a big slushy sponge out there. It’s like trying to shovel the ocean. If you can clear it out that’s the best idea, because it will re-freeze in a few hours and that sponge is going to be a solid brick of ice by morning.

Suggaree42; Thanks for the kind words and the observation. I’m excited about seeing more of everyone’s pictures here on thebostonchannel.com

Rheglin: These guys are unbelievable to work with. Harvey and Dick know so much about weather its like being in a meteorology class with top notch professors everyday. I jokingly say they’ve forgotten more weather knowledge, than most meteorologist will ever learn.

2-14-07 4:31pm

Well it looks like the moisture is finally shutting off. If you look on radar you’ll see the absence of rain/sleet south to the south. That dry air is moving northward so I expect the precipitation to shut off by 7pm in Boston. A little later in southern NH.

There is lots of slush on the roads. That’s clogging storm drains and all this rain is flooding roadways. Especially in Boston and the South Shore. Make sure your sump pump is working at home; the frozen ground is absorbing none of this water so basements may be in jeopardy.

Cold air will be rushing back into the region between 6 and 8pm tonight. All this slush is going to refreeze into a solid block of ice. By midnight temperatures will be back down to around 18-20 degrees, so the re-freeze will be fast. That’s why we call it a “flash-freeze”. By tomorrow morning temperatures will be in the single digits west of the city and in the low teen in Boston.

I do think there are going to be some late school starts tomorrow morning. Untreated roads are going to be very slippery and with temperatures that cold, salt and chemicals are slow to work. Once the sun returns the roads will improve quickly but expect a cold windy day tomorrow. Harvey and Dick are up shortly on NewsCenter5 at 5. They’ll have the very latest on the weather. Also, need to know how long it’s going to take to get home? We’ll have the freshest look at the travel problems. And there are a bunch of them. Drive Safely.

2-14-07 3:38pm

Hey Dusty: Look for the re-freeze to hit you in southern NH at about 6 or 7pm. We’re working on an update right now, so I may have new info for you within the hour.

Thanks Kimbie: This is a whole new world, but everyone has been really supportive on the web today. I’m glad you’re enjoying it.

By749: I know it sounds strange to be having liquid moisture at 19-degrees, but we have so much warm air aloft that the cold air is only a few feet thick at the surface. Scroll down the page a bit. I tried to explain some of the reasons in an early posting. I think there may be some school delays tomorrow morning. A lot of this slush is going to re-freeze overnight and travel is not going to be pleasant early in the morning. Watch out…the sidewalks may the worst.

Eddie: Thanks. I will tell you everyone at 5 is incredibly professional and a joy to work with. Not just the great on-air weather team but everyone behind the scenes as well.

2-14-07 3:18pm

We've all been glued to the radar the last 12-hours so I thought I'd share a few items that might interest you about Doppler. The Storm Trak 5 Live Doppler is an incredible piece of equipment. Not only do we have our own radar we also have access to ever other National Weather Service Radar site in the U.S. This can give us a complete picture of a storm. Doppler Radar generates a lot of useful products. You’re used to seeing the standard reflectivity mode on TV. That’s what you’ll also see on this web site and at 5-7pm tonight on a special edition of NewsCenter 5. But the radar can also show wind velocity and rain drop velocity. We don’t usually show it on the air because it can look like a Grateful Dead Tie-dyed T-Shirt. However it’s incredibly useful as a forecast tool. In velocity mode the radar can help us determine which way the rain drops are moving. We use this extensively during summer thunderstorms. If you see a bunch of rain drops going away from the radar, and a bunch of rain drops going toward the radar and they are right next to each other…watch out! That’s a classic situation to spot a tornado.

2-14-07 2:34pm

Hey Natureman: Thanks for the compliment. It’s a great team here at 5 and Joe Venuti came over from 56 as well. Irish: That wind is going to get worse in a few hours in Marblehead. We’re seinge the storm really bombing out and it should move just east of you around 7:30pm.

Ncaabbnut: I can see from your name you’re a real basketball fan. I will warn you it is going to be extremely icy by the time that game is over. (Besides Duke isn’t having that great of a year anyway.) You might want to check to make sure Duke made it in before you head north. Flights have been erratic along the East Coast today.

NHSoxGirl: That mix will likely turn back over to a bit of snow this evening. Don’t look for much accumulation, just watch out for all that slush re-freezing.

Jared: I’m afraid the sliding is going to get worse in a few hours.

Suz: Last check out of Pittsfield it was still snowing lightly with about 6” on the ground and 19-degrees.

2-14-07 2:03pm

The National Weather Service has upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for the Cape and Islands. We are seeing some impressive pressure falls south of Long Island, NY. This means the low pressure is rapidly intensifying. 60mph winds are likely in the Warning area.

The timing on the “Flash Freeze” should be between 5 and 8pm tonight. (See my early advice about shoveling, and remember it is heavy wet stuff.) As the intense low tracks east of Boston it will drag the cold air back in over the Metro area. Everything will freeze up fast. Literally in a matter of minutes. The main roads are well treated, but some of the melting chemicals are being washed away by the rain and the secondary roads are pretty much untreated. Slow Down, especially as you exit the main roads.

2-14-07 1:47pm

Advise for those of you at work…

I was just outside moving through this slush and it’s a mess. The rain that’s been falling along the South Shore and moving northward is being held in place by the snow/sleet on the ground. In other words, it’s becoming a big sponge mix of snow and water. It covers everything. When you get home tonight shovel it as soon as you can. Later tonight it’s going to “flash freeze”. That means it’s going to turn into a solid block of ice. And with no real warming expected in the next 5-days you can plan on looking at that block of ice for a while. I know it’s the last thing you want to do when you get home, but it will save you a lot of grief.

2-14-07 12:41

I was just looking at an upper air sounding. It’s called a Skew-T. It gives us a profile of the atmosphere. It’s really impressive. At the surface temperatures are near freezing. However, if you went up to about 4500-feet the temperatures is 50-degrees. So as a snowflakes leaves the cloud, “it’s m e l t i n g”. (Sorry, The Wizard of Oz thing just jumped into my brain.) So as the snow flake melts on its way to Earth it refreezes just before hitting the ground. That’s why a lot of this is falling as sleet. As the storm gets closer and stronger this afternoon, more of this warm air will mix in. However, as the storm center roars through Cape Ann around sunset, cold air will return. That is going to refreeze all this slush. Roadways are going to be extremely slippery this evening. Getting home early would be my best advice. Short of that…slow down and check out a special addition of NewsCenter 5 from 5-7pm. We’ll have the latest weather and traffic reports.

2-14-07 12:14

I was just watching the reporters out in the field doing live shots for the Midday newscast. Look at the reporters carefully. If you see the precipitation bouncing off them, it’s sleet. If it falls and sticks it’s snow. If you can’t see much it’s likely freezing rain or rain. Not quite as handy as Doppler Radar but it gives you a good indicator of where the mixed precipitation is falling.

2-14-07 11:39am

Make sure you check out JC and David Brown at Noon. They have some new info, great maps and the latest thinking. Speaking of maps, watch the satellite imagery this afternoon. This storm is going to wind up like a top. It’s actually called a Comma Cloud. The whole storm will take the shape of a (,). When ever you see a storm take on a comma shape you know it’s a large and intense low-pressure system. Every once in a while what appears to be an “eye” forms. I don’t think we’ll see an eye today but the only other time you’ll see an “eye” on a satellite image is when a hurricane approaches.

2-14-07 11:09am

As you’ve probably noticed this morning, sleet does not accumulate much. Snow flakes are light and fluffy and take up a great deal of space. (relatively speaking) Sleet is much more compact. If you look at both under a microscope sleet is more of a tiny glob as opposed to the feathery features of a snowflake. So for the same amount of moisture you’ll get much more accumulation from snow than sleet. That said, sleet is still frozen precipitation and makes roadways very slippery.

Here are some totals as of 10am this morning:

MASSACHUSETTS

...FRANKLIN COUNTY... GREENFIELD 5.0 LEVERETT 5.0

...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... GOSHEN 5.5 WESTHAMPTON 4.0 AMHERST 3.7

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... PEPPERELL 2.0

...WORCESTER COUNTY... PHILLIPSTON 3.3 LEOMINSTER 3.0 NORTH GRAFTON 2.0 WEST BOYLSTON 2.0

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CHESHIRE COUNTY... KEENE 4.0 RINDGE 4.0 WINCHESTER 4.0

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY... SOUTH WEARE 3.3 WILTON 3.0 NASHUA 2.5 HUDSON 2.0

We’re still having a hard time scouring out the low level cold air. That’s why temperatures are not climbing much and freezing rain and sleet will ikley be with us most of the afternoon

2-14-07 9:08am

Here’s the latest and all that technical stuff…

We still have a lot of moisture working up the coast. Most of the snow and sleet has been light this morning. However, there is abundant moisture moving up the coast from the Carolinas. The ground is cold as we’ve had temperatures below normal for the last 10-days. The east wind off the ocean is slowly scouring out the cold air along the coastal plain of eastern Mass., but the east wind is having a hard time dislodging the cold west near 495. Southeast of 95 from Boston to Providence where we have the sleet and freezing rain this morning should switch over to all rain early this afternoon. The worst of the weather is well northwest of Boston. Western Mass and SW New Hampshire have Blizzard warnings for this afternoon. The snow will be blowing around and reducing visibility. I wouldn’t travel into this area today. Wait until tomorrow it will be much easier travel. Speaking of winds, northeast winds will pick up this afternoon. There is a wind advisory for the South Coast over the cape and northward through Plymouth County. Tonight we may get a “flash freeze” Everything that is wet and melting this afternoon will quickly re-freeze after sunset. Winds will pick up from the northwest this evening and usher in the cold. Strong northwest winds will continue tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 20’s with Wind Chills near 0 all day. The next chance for snow will be late Sunday into Monday as a trough approaches the East Coast.

2-14-07 8:49am

One more cancellation. According to NewBlues.com, the House hearing on "Global Warming" scheduled for today in Washington, DC was postponed because of an ice storm.

2-14-07 8:23am

PW: The Lakes region will be getting around a foot of snow. I’m hoping to do a little skiing up there next week with my kids. That fresh snow should help your sled dig in. The pure ice with no snow cover is so difficult to get good traction and steering. Drive safe and have fun.

2-14-07 8:11am

Snow vs. Rain vs. Freezing Rain vs. The Kitchen Sink

We’ve seen a little bit of everything this morning and will continue to see a wintry mix today. So what is that stuff falling from the sky? First a little background. Temperatures will determine what falls. If the air is above 32-degrees from the ground to the cloud it will fall as rain. If the temperature is below 32-degrees from the ground to the cloud it falls as snow. That part is pretty straight forward. Where the problem comes in is when the temperature profile changes. Let say the column of air is warm, above 32-degrees almost all the way to the ground, and only the last few feet above the surface are below 32-degrees or just the surface object are below freezing. Now it falls as rain and as soon as it touches a cold object on the ground it flash freezes. This is freezing rain. It’s probably the most dangerous of the winter precip. It’s responsible for bring down power lines and creating a layer of ice on roadways. Let’s say the air is still mild up to the cloud base, but that layer of cold air at the ground is a little thicker than with freezing rain. Maybe a few hundred feet thick. A snowflake leaves the cloud and partially melts on the way down. It falls into the cold air and stops melting, but the nice gentle six sided object has been reduced to a glob of frozen ice. That’s sleet. You can usually identify it when it falls because it bounces as it hits the ground. There is still one more kind of messy wintry precipitation. Graupel. It’s a little bigger than sleet and is caused by water droplets coating a snowflake. The pellets are cloudy and white. You can tell it from sleet because sleet is clear. The pellets can get quite large and in spring and fall people will often mistakenly identify it as hail. Most of us will see all these type of precipitation today. Now you know why New England weather is so fascinating to watch.

2-14-07 7:46am

CNP: You might want to wait a little bit this morning. Roads are not bad…but as you know a few bad drivers and conditions can deteriorate quickly. I think you’ll be fine driving home at 4pm. I don’t expect the re-freeze until after sunset. Probably not until 10pm over the Cape. Gscbrownie: It is slippery on the didewalks this morning, but a lot of that is going to melt this afternoon. The refreeze for Boston will likely be around 7pm. That means there will be a lot of black ice, especially on untreated surfaces. Thanks Flurry: I’m watching that warm air moving up over the Cape. You might actually get mild this afternoon. There’s even an outside chance of a thunderstorms later today.

2-14-07 7:09am

The Track is Everything…

We talked about this yesterday but it deserves another examination. The track of any storm system is crucial to snow forecasting. We have a thing in New England forecasting called the “benchmark”. It’s where a storm has to track in order to produce heavy snow in eastern Mass. The “benchmark” is located at 40/70. The latitude longitude lines that intersect just east of Nantucket. As always there are exceptions to the rules, but if we have a big storm track over the benchmark you can plan on enough cold air staying in Boston to produce those blockbuster snowfalls. This storm is coming up Buzzards Bay. Way to far east to produce big snows. In fact I was thinking about the projected path and it’s following almost the same trajectory as Hurricane Bob back in 1991. (Don’t worry winds will be strong, but not nearly that breezy.) So despite very cold temperatures initially overnight, the path of this nor’easter will force warming aloft and eventually down to the surface. JC had a great explanation at 4:56 am this morning about how the temperature of a column of air effects what falls. Sleet vs snow vs freezing rain. We’ll talk more about that later this morning. Suffice it to say, don’t expect any heavy snow near the coast. Ski country, western MA and southwestern NH will get the bulk of this snow. However, don’t underestimate the surface ice. It is slick this morning and a surge of cold air after sunset tonight will likely refreeze any road surfaces that are wet from rain today.

2-14-07 5:32am

Lots of schools Closed Today.

The storm center will track right up Buzzards Bay and then over Boston later today. Too far east for major snow east of 495, however a wintry mix will fall and the winds will howl today

The National Weather Service is holding onto the WINTER STORM WARNING for the interior sections of Mass. The combination of snow, sleet, freezing rain and wind will be the problem today. It’s a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for southeastern MA.

Drive slow and give yourself plenty of time.

2-14-07 5:18am

Good morning. Not a lot of it…but it’s messy.

Overnight light snow fell in most areas. However, despite the cold at the surface, it’s warming rapidly aloft. That’s why the snow has changed to sleet inside of 495. We may even get some freezing rain this morning. Be careful. It’s not a lot but it is slick. JC and David are handling the EyeOpener this morning. They’ve been up most of the night and have an excellent handle on the situation. Spend a few minutes with them and it will make your commute much easier. Speaking of commute, Cindy has the traffic situation under control. The warm air will be working its way toward Boston later this morning. By Noon it should be rain in Boston. How far the rain pushes inland will be the big story today.

2-13-07 11:09pm

Time to head to bed. I'll check out Harvey’s final update and then call it a night. Most meteorologists will be up several times during the night tonight. We all want to see what’s happening. My wife has gotten used to it after all these years. First you look out the window, and then you turn the porch light on. (Neighbors hate when I do that at 3am). Finally I walk outside in my bare feet. I don’t know why, but most of us do it and so you might see an update in the wee hours of the morning. Before I toddle off to nap here’s the latest: Expect snow to arrive around 4am. It should really kick up a notch for the morning commute. For the morning commute we should have between 1”-4” on the ground. Then it gets interesting. An icy mix will develop over the Cape at about sunrise and rapidly move northward during the morning. By noon it will be rain over the Cape and a mix in Boston. This mix pushes westward to I-495. That’s why the snow totals forecast is so challenging. It’s not the moisture that’s a problem; it’s the cold air….or lack there of. All of the computer models indicate this is an “inside runner”. That’s a storm that is too far inland to produce heavy snow in Boston. The low will track over Narragansett Bay then up through Boston finally exiting over Gloucester tomorrow evening.. This storm is strong now but by tomorrow afternoon it will “bomb” out as the energy from the Midwest is transferred over the mid-Atlantic Coast. The subtropical jet overhead will be clipping along at nearly 230mph. That’s an incredible source of energy. Check out the observations atop Mt. Washington tomorrow. You’ll see some wind gusts well over 100mph. The track of the main storm right over Boston will result in a changeover to rain along the coast tomorrow morning. Strong easterly winds will push much milder ocean air inland. The ocean temperatures are in the upper 30’s. Added to this we have a lot of warm air aloft roaring in on a low level jet. So even though surface temperatures will be near freezing the mid level warming will mean mixed precipitation instead of all snow all the way inland to 495. It will take a while for this warm air to move inland that’s why it will start out as snow for everyone. The change to rain will develop from south to north along the coast starting at about 7am at the Cape and arrive in Boston around 10am. Because of the track of this low pressure, warming will extend in the mid levels all the way back to Worcester and Fitchburg by late afternoon. This will cut down on some of the snow totals but may cause some icing problems.

We will have strong winds out of the east tomorrow but there may be an even bigger problem Wednesday night as the low pressure moves through. West-northwest winds could gust 45-60mph for most of the area. Wind advisories are likely to be extended into Thursday. As this west wind picks up it will blast us with some very cold air Wednesday night. So areas that had seen rain will likely change over and re-freeze. This will happen fast. Be careful driving tomorrow night. The “flash freeze” will start around sunset to the northwest and reach the Cape by 10pm. As this cold air returns it should turn back to snow. So even though you might have been in rain most of the afternoon expect some additional snowfall after sunset. About 1” of snow in most locations, possibly 1”-3” north of the Mass pike and west of 495. Despite the strong winds, coastal flooding should be minor. Just a little splashover at the 9pm Wednesday high tide. Tides are astronomically low this time of the month (see my earlier tide discussion) so don’t expect much of a coastal problem despite 10-15 seas.

JC will be here for the EyeOpener starting at 4:56am and I'll update you via the web. Thanks for checking in and I'll see you in the morning. There should be lots of interesting things happening on Wednesday.

2-13-07 9:39pm

You may hear a term tomorrow that will sound a bit unusual. We say that the low pressure system coming up the coast is going to “bomb” out. Surprisingly, that is a meteorological term. We say a storm “bombs” when there is explosive cyclogenesis. In other words your barometer is going to drop like a rock!

2-13-07 8:47pm

I wanted to mention the winds tomorrow. We will have strong winds out of the east tomorrow but there may be an even bigger problem Wednesday night as the low pressure moves through. West-northwest winds could gust 45-60mph for most of the area. Wind advisories are likely to be extended into Thursday. As this west wind picks up it will blast us with some very cold air. So areas that had seen rain will likely re-freeze and it will happen fast. Be careful driving tomorrow night. The “flash freeze” will start around sunset to the northwest and reach the Cape by 10pm. As this cold air returns it should turn back to snow. So even though you might have been in rain most of the afternoon expect some additional snowfall after sunset. About 1” of snow in most locations, possibly 1”-3” north of the Mass pike and west of 495.

2-13-07 8:01pm

I was just checking out Storm Trak 5 Live Doppler. Our radar is an amazing tool. You combine it with the knowledge of Dick and Harvey and that’s a pretty formidable combination.

Back to the radar…You may have noticed it’s showing some snow to the south west. Remember that as the radar beam goes out it cuts a slice higher and higher through the atmosphere. It all has to do with the curve of the Earth. The ground is actually falling away from the radar beam.

So what you are seeing is snow in the clouds. Underneath it’s too dry for the snow to make it to the ground. It’s evaporating before it reaches the ground. It will take a while for the lower atmosphere to moisten up enough to allow the snow to begin accumulating. That’s why we are expecting snow after midnight and not becoming steady until around 3am.

2-13-07 7:36pm

School is cancelled tomorrow!

It’s what every young person loves to hear, and every parent fears. Calling off school is a complex issue. I don’t envy school administrators who have to make the call. Based on what I’m looking at right now I think there are going to be a lot of cancellations for Wednesday near and west of 495. And depending on how fast the crews can clear the roads there may still be a few cancellations on Thursday in SW New Hampshire and western Mass. Inside of 128 it's a bit trickier. There’s going to be a lot of mixing. Everyone will see snow in the morning but it will change over fast, especially toward the Cape. So I think a lot of schools from Cape Ann through Boston down to Providence and over to the Cape will likely have school tomorrow. There may be a few late starts because it will be snowing in the morning and not change over to rain until afternoon. Often superintendents have to take into account additional things besides just the weather forecast and they have to make the decision early in the morning. And you think meteorologist have a tough job during a snow event.

2-13-07 7:04pm

I was just watching a story on ABC News a few minutes ago, and Charlie Gibson had a good line. “When Chicago’s O’Hare airport hiccups the rest of the country has a headache”. How true. There are going to be a lot of headaches tomorrow for air travelers. I’ve had a number of you asking about possible delays at Logan. Logan may not be the weak link in the travel system tomorrow. It’s all the airports to the south. New York, Philly, DC and to the west Chicago. When these airports have any slowdowns it ripples up the East Coast. Bring patience with you to the airport tomorrow.

2-13-07 6:31pm

Barb: I think I’d delay your trip to Albany tomorrow. The farther west you go the more snow will fall. Add to that the winds and the lower visibility and it’s probably not worth the worry of trying to make it. Things will improve by Thursday. I've thought about bring the quiz question back, it was always a lot of fun.

2-13-07 6:25pm

Vicki and Mal: Logan will be fine tomorrow in terms of rain and snow. They have amazing equipment and people out there. They can clear a runway in 7-minutes. However, the wind may be an issue. When the winds get this strong tomorrow afternoon, 30-50mph, the aircraft need separation. Also this storm will be causing delays and cancellations up and down the East Coast. So the back ups will likely cause most of the East Coast corridor to slow down.

Vicki, he’s in luck flying directly from Ft. Myers but I’d expect him to be late. Actually he may use that as an excuse to stay a few more days in Florida. Red Sox pitchers and catchers should be floating around there by now.

Mal: Thanks for the kind words but I think your son’s flight is in for a major delay. They are going to have problems early in the day in DC and that may mean a scarcity of planes to take off. They usually use the same planes to fly back and forth all day. So as the day goes on, expect the delays to get longer and longer. As always…call ahead, but I’ll admit it’s been nearly impossible to get any human on the phone lately.

2-13-07 6:12pm

Too much warm air?

The track of the main storm right over Boston will result in a changeover to rain along the coast tomorrow morning. Strong easterly winds will push much milder ocean air inland. The ocean temperatures are in the upper 30’s. Added to this we have a lot of warm air aloft roaring in on a low level jet. So even though surface temperatures will be near freezing the mid level warming will mean mixed precipitation instead of all snow all the way inland to 495.

It will take a while for this warm air to move inland that’s why it will start out as snow for everyone. The change to rain will develop from south to north along the coast starting at about 7am at the Cape and arrive in Boston around 10am.

Because of the track of this low pressure, warming will extend in the mid levels all the way back to Worcester and Fitchburg by late afternoon. This will cut down on some of the snow totals but may cause some icing problems.

2-13-07 5:56pm

Variety is the spice of life…and this storm has everything.

Expect snow to arrive after midnight. It should really kick up a notch by 3am. For the morning commute we should have between 1”-4” on the ground. Then it gets interesting. An icy mix will develop over the Cape at about sunrise and rapidly move northward during the morning. By noon it will be rain over the Cape and a mix in Boston. This mix pushes westward to I-495. That’s why the snow totals forecast is so challenging. It’s not the moisture that’s a problem; it’s the cold air….or lack there of.

Now for the technical stuff…

All of the computer models indicate an “inside runner”. That’s a storm that is too far inland to produce heavy snow in Boston. The 12Z GFS/NAM and RGEM computer models were tracking the low over Narragansett Bay tomorrow evening. While the European Model and GFS Ensemble tracked a little farther east over Buzzards Bay up through Boston.

This storm is strong now but by tomorrow afternoon it will “bomb” out as the energy from the Midwest is transferred over the mid-Atlantic Coast.

The subtropical jet overhead will be clipping along at nearly 230mph. That’s an incredible source of energy. Check out the observations atop Mt. Washington tomorrow. You’ll see some wind gusts wellover 100mph.

2-13-07 5:30pm

Coastal Concerns…

I haven’t talked much about the coast so far today so let’s examine the tides. We’re in luck because astronomical tides are low. If we had a full moon or a new moon we’d be experiencing “spring tides”. “Spring tide” does not refer to the time of the year, but refers to how the water appears to “spring” out of the ocean. We are in the3rd phase of the moon so the tides a re called “Neap tide”. That means our tides will be about 2 feet lower than they would be in a few days. That’s why we are expecting onlyminor coastal flooding. Still we have to watch these winds because they will stir up the ocean fast.

2-13-07 5:15pm

I was reading some of your memories about the Blizzard of 78. Wow, there are some great stories there. Tomorrow’s storm is a classic Nor’easter. But nothing like that one. In fact, as meteorologist you have to be very careful about EVER comparing any storm to the Blizzard of 78. Nor'easter was a pretty local term credited to the Maine lobstermen who slurred the word “North Easter” when describing the direction the wind was coming from. When the Blizzard of ’78 hit people across the country asked, “What was that?” Since we called it a nor’easter, the rest of the country started calling these storms nor’easters and that’s how the word became a part of our culture. By the way a similar storm on the West Coast is often called a sou’wester. Their winds are from the southwest…copy cats.

2-13-07 5:10pm

Ryan: I think you’re absolutely correct. You’re more likely to have school cancelled in southern New Hampshire then down south closer to Boston. As always it’s up to your superintendent and that’s not always an easy call.

JMS: My biggest concern with your Valentine’s Day Dinner tomorrow night at 7:30 is that if dinner goes late, the cold air will return. As cold air rushes in. Roadways could become extremely treacherous as everything “flash freezes”. Be very careful traveling tomorrow evening. Roads will turn slippery-fast. And give my best to your Valentine.

Ben: I don’t think you’ll loose power in Wayland tomorrow because of the snow. However, the wind may be strong enough to knock down some lines. 35-45 mph near you. As for school…you’ll probably have it. But you might get a late start.

2-13-07 4:34pm

Update... Snow will begin after midnight. Expect 2”-3” on the ground by the time you drive into work. The snow will change to rain over the Cape by 8am. It will change to a wintry mix in Boston by 10am. This warm air will continue to push inland and by early afternoon the mix will push just beyond 495. It will likely rain in Boston tomorrow afternoon. As the storm moves northward cold air will plunge back over the region and give us one last brief burst of snow before it exits. So putting it all together… Totals will be around 3”-5” in Boston. 2”-4” South Shore. 1”-3” Cape. Near 128 out to 495 4”-6”, Beyond 495 expect 5”-10”. Across southern NH and western Mass. 8”-18” could fall.

Traffic Problems…

If you’ve been trying to get into any of the National Weather Service web sites and the connection is slow, it’s not your computer. We got a note yesterday from the NWS that their sites are being hit so hard from around the country that they’ve run out of capacity. This is a large storm so it’s not just New Englanders that are curious about this snow storm. Don’t worry..thebostonchannel.com has power to spare. The news is on in just a few minutes with the latest from Harvey and Dick.

2-13-07 3:59pm

The cold air is in place and now we are waiting for the snow. It’s hard to believe that with temperatures only in the 20’s today, it may actually be too warm to produce a major snow storm in Boston. The snow will start after midnight. Expect around 2”-3” of snow for the morning commute. Then the warm air starts to get mixed in. The snow will change to a mix inside of 495. Along the coast it will quickly change to a windy rain. The heaviest snow will be in western Mass up into VT/NH. This is still great news for skiers and boarders. These snow totals are looking less then originally expected this morning. Mainly because the storm is tracking more inland and the warm air moving up the coast with this storm is very impress. More details shortly…

2-13-07 3:41pm

Kathy, thank you for the kind words. It’s a great team over here at 5 and I’m excited to be a part of it.

Bruce and Craig: The 12Z NAM/GFS model runs were the first to indicate a more eastern track of the low. That means Boston would be in a more of a 2”-4” initial snow belt before it changes over to a rain/snow mix. Craig you bring up an excellent point concerning CAD (Cold Air Damming). However with such a deep low and winds in the 50-60mph range; plus a very impress low level jet of warm air, I think the cold air will scour out quickly. That’s why I think freezing rain will be of minimal consideration. I think most of the South Shore will see 1”-3” before flipping to rain. Keep in mind that as the storm lifts northward a return blast of cold air would likely give us a quick inch or two of snow after a day of rain. The winds are going to howl!

2-13-07 3:03pm

It’s Never Easy….

Our first problem….we are starting to get indications that a wedge of very warm air will push in near the coast with this storm. IF this plays out, snow totals would be a little less than originally forecast inside of 495. Harvey and Dick are pouring over the latest computer runs and we’ll have an update shortly. Tonight’s 5, 5:30 and 6:00 newscasts will be, “must see TV” tonight.

2-13-07 2:08pm

An unusual feature of this storm has been the consistency of the computer models. Usually the computer projections are all over the place. For this storm, there seems to be a consensus that the main low will track right up Buzzards Bay tomorrow afternoon. This usually means the heaviest snow will be northwest of Boston with a mix of rain/snow inside of 495. Of course the closer you are to 495 the less rain will mix in, and conversely the closer you are to the coast the less snow will mix in. That’s why you see the snow totals varying so dramatically just west of Boston. There is a little over and inch of precipitation to deal with, so the colder you are the more the precipitation will fall as snow; conversely the warmer it is the more the precipitation will fall as rain.

2-13-07 1:22pm

"Will there be school tomorrow”?

It’s the most popular question asked of me during a nor’easter. In fact I just got a call from my daughter Anna’s class and another from a very nice teacher at Andover West Middle School. They are trying to make plans for tomorrow. Based on what I’m looking at right now I think there are going to be a lot of cancellations for Wednesday near and west of 495. And depending on how fast the crews can clear the roads there may still be a few cancellations on Thursday. Inside of 128 it's a bit trickier. There’s going to be a lot of mixing. Everyone will see snow in the morning but it will change over fast, especially toward the Cape. So I think a lot of schools from Boston to Barnstable will likely have school or only have a late start tomorrow. Sorry. By the way we do not make the call on school closings; it’s up to each school superintendent. Often they have to take into account additional things besides just the weather forecast. You think our job is tough...hats off to the school administrators.

2-13-07 Noon

Now that we know when it’s going to begin (7pm-midnight tonight) … when will it end? Tomorrow morning the snow will be heavy at times. As the low tracks up the coast it will get stronger and stronger. The storm will create what we call a low level jet of warm air. This is a slot of fast moving warm air that will eventually change the snow to a mix of sleet/snow and rain. It should start mixing by about 7 or 8 am at the Cape and then move northward. But how far north? And how fast will the change over occur? Those are the two big questions we’ll be trying to iron out this afternoon.

Because this storm is so compact and so strong, the line between snow and rain will be very distinct. You’ll be able to drive (maybe) just a few miles down the road from heavy snow to a cold rainy mix.

The cutoff line is going to be roughly along a line from Manchester, NH to Worcester, MA to Hartford, CT. West of this line expect all snow. Perhaps 10”-20”. East of that line there will be some degree of mixing. It’s not out of the question that parts of the Cape could hit 50-degrees tomorrow! Now you understand the problem. 50 and thunderstorms at the Cape; 30 and heavy snow in Worcester. New England ... we have the most amazing weather don’t we.

By late tomorrow afternoon the low pressure center will continue moving northward toward the Gulf of Maine. This is when we will get our strongest winds and we may see blizzard conditions for a few hours ending by around 8 or 9 pm.

This is where it gets interesting again.

Everyone that was experiencing rain or rain/snow will quickly change back to snow as cold air rushes in. Roadways could become extremely treacherous as everything “flash freezes”. Be very careful traveling tomorrow evening. Roads will turn slippery-fast.

It will continue to be very windy Thursday but the snow should shut off shortly after midnight Wednesday.

2-13-07 11:31am

Watches…Warnings…Advisories…oh my!

Whenever we get a storm like this the National Weather Service issues a variety of public statement to address the severity of the situation. A Watch means keep an eye on the weather. That’s what we had yesterday . The Watch was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning early this morning. Wiht tthe possible exception of a Blizzard Warning, this is the most severe winter statement that can be issue by the National Weather Service. A Winter Storm Warning is issued when winter weather is occurring or highly likely over part or all of the area.

That said, here is what’s in place as of noon today: A HEAVY SNOW WARNING starting tonight for western Mass and southern New Hampshire. A WINTER STORM WARNING east of 495. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for parts of southeastern Mass and Rhodes island where snow totals are expected to remain below the warning criteria. Still not pleasant travel but not as dangerous as you move west.

2-13-07 10:56am

I don’t know if you had a chance to see the blazing red sunrise JC featured on this morning’s EyeOpener but it was stunning. It reminded me of the old saying, “Red Sky at Morning, Sailors take Warning.” There are warnings and advisories out for later today so get your preparations done early.

As you look outside a nice layer of thin cirrus clouds has started to push in. This cloud deck will thicken and we could see some light snow as early as just after sunset…however, the steady snow won’t get going until after midnight. It will arrive along the South Coast and the Cape first then push northward. It won’t take long for the snow to move northward as the coastal low develops and moves up from the Carolinas.

It looks to be all snow for everyone initially with an eventual changeover to all rain south of the Cape Cod Canal and mix of rain, sleet and snow north and westward to about halfway between 495 and 128. West of 495 it’ll be all snow and that’s where the heavy stuff falls. (Check out the snow totals map on this page and you’ll see what I mean!) Skiers and boarders.,.you gotta love it.

There is a chance we could have blizzard or near blizzard conditions by late tomorrow afternoon.

2-13-07 7:33am

Welcome! We finally have some snow to talk about and that’s what I’ll be doing in this series of blog entrees. As things change I’ll update our thoughts concerning the snow and give you a little background on what we’re thinking. For the very latest scroll to the bottom of this page. You’ll see a time stamp so you know what is the freshest info. As always we appreciate your feedback. What do you like? What would you like to learn more about? Too technical…not technical enough? Since no one has tried this before, it’s all new so help me shape what you’d like to learn more about.

You’ve got the best weather team in the business with Harvey, Dick, JC and David. They’ll be on air and I’ll keep you posted here.