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NFL Preview - New England (2-1) At Cincinnati (3-0)

POSTED: 5:09 pm EDT September 28, 2006

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(Sports Network) - Last Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals announced to the world that they could handle the reigning Super Bowl champs. Seven days later, Marvin Lewis' team is out to reinforce that fact, against another longtime member of the AFC and NFL elite.

The New England Patriots will visit Paul Brown Stadium in Week 4, and the Bengals' objective will be to dispose of the league's two most recent owners of the Lombardi Trophy in a two-week span. Cincinnati moved to 3-0 by gutting out a 28-17 win over the Steelers at Heinz Field last week, as quarterback Carson Palmer and company coolly exorcised a playoff demon that had tormented them since mid-January. The victory allowed the Bengals to open up a two-game lead over Pittsburgh in the AFC North, and also helped them keep pace with similarly 3-0 Baltimore.

The Patriots, meanwhile, failed to alleviate the sting of their most recent playoff setback during Week 3. New England appeared listless during much of a 17-7 loss to the Broncos on Sunday night, failing to impress either the Gillette Stadium crowd or a national television audience viewing in primetime. New England now sits in a tie along with the surprising New York Jets atop the AFC North, but the Pats' first-place position does not in itself indicate to the masses that the franchise belongs on a short list of Super Bowl contenders.

A win in Cincinnati on Sunday could alter that perception, however.

SERIES HISTORY

New England holds a 11-8 lead in the all-time series with Cincinnati, including a 35-28 home victory when the teams last met, in 2004. The Bengals were 23-17 winners when the teams last faced off in the Queen City, in 2001. The Patriots' most recent win in Cincinnati occurred in 1994.

New England head coach Bill Belichick is 10-3 in his career against the Bengals, including 2-1 while with the Patriots. Cincinnati's Lewis is 0-1 against both Belichick and the Patriots as a head coach.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. BENGALS DEFENSE

If the Patriots have to throw the ball 55 times against the Bengals, as quarterback Tom Brady (703 passing yards, 4 TD, 2 INT) did in last week's loss to the Broncos, they're in trouble. Brady completed 31 of those passes for 320 yards, but was able to lead just one scoring drive in the contest. Wide receiver Doug Gabriel caught six passes for 65 yards and the team's only touchdown in his formal debut as a Patriot. Gabriel, Reche Caldwell (7 receptions), and Troy Brown (10 receptions, 1 TD) have all been frequent Brady targets thus far, as have tight ends Ben Watson (11 receptions) and Daniel Graham (4 receptions). Second-round draft choice Chad Jackson, who scored a touchdown against the Jets in Week 2, has appeared in only one game due to hamstring problems and is again listed as questionable for this week. The Patriots line has allowed Brady to be sacked a modest four times through three games, and the quarterback was not dropped last week.

Brady will have his work cut out for him in avoiding turnovers against a playmaking Cincinnati secondary, one that has been aided by a rejuvenated pass rush. The Bengals have six interceptions through their first three games, including three of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger a week ago. Safeties Madieu Williams (14 tackles, 2 INT), Kevin Kaesviharn (15 tackles, 1 INT), and cornerback Deltha O'Neal (12 tackles, 1 INT) all notched picks in Pittsburgh. A Bengals pass rush that had long been considered a team weakness has posted 10 sacks thus far in 2006, including four each for ends Justin Smith and Robert Geathers. Smith had one sack of Roethlisberger last Sunday, and Geathers brought down the quarterback twice.

After suggesting that their running game would be carrying the offense in 2006 with two strong rushing performances in the first two weeks, the Patriots had a miserable game on the ground last Sunday. New England managed just 50 yards on 21 carries against Denver, with neither Laurence Maroney nor Corey Dillon getting untracked. Maroney (169 rushing yards, 1 TD), the team's first-round draft choice out of Minnesota, was held to 18 yards on 12 carries in the contest, though he did add five catches for 61 yards out of the backfield. Dillon (169 rushing yards, 1 TD) played sparingly due to arm injury, managing just 16 yards on five totes. Dillon will be returning to Cincinnati to face the Bengals, for whom he starred from 1997 through 2003. Kevin Faulk, a favorite target of Brady's, had six catches for 34 yards in last week's game.

There is some concern in the Queen City over the state of the linebacking corps, which lost starter David Pollack in Week 1 with a neck fracture, and will also be without Odell Thurman for the remainder of the year after the second-year pro was suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Current starting linebackers Brian Simmons (22 tackles), Landon Johnson (18 tackles), and Rashad Jeanty (11 tackles) have played well, but there is little depth behind them. Cincinnati will need defensive tackles Sam Adams (4 tackles), Bryan Robinson (14 tackles, 1 sack) and John Thornton (9 tackles, 1 sack) to continue to set the LBs up for success from their spots on the interior. The Bengals are allowing 113.3 rushing yards per game, which is middle-of-the-NFL-pack.

BENGALS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

Carson Palmer (672 passing yards, 6 TD, 4 INT) appears to be well beyond questions about his ability to return from last year's season-ending knee injury, as he has picked up his prolific passing pace of 2005 with precious little trouble. Palmer has six touchdowns passes to four different receivers in his first three games, including two scoring strikes each to T.J. Houshmandzadeh (9 receptions, 2 TD) and Chris Henry (11 receptions, 2 TD) last week. No. 1 receiver Chad Johnson (12 receptions, 1 TD) was limited to just one grab against the Steelers, a lack of production that came as a result of his being double- and triple-teamed for much of the day. Something of a concern for Cincinnati is the 11 sacks surrendered by the line through three weeks, with the injured status of center Rich Braham (knee) contributing to that total. Braham will not play on Sunday.

Palmer will be attempting to pick apart a New England defense that has shown no great ability to make plays against opposing passing games. The Patriots have just one interception through their first three contests, that going to linebacker Tedy Bruschi in Week 2, and come off a week in which they scarcely pressured Denver quarterback Jake Plummer, much less sacked him. Matching up with Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh will be cornerbacks Asante Samuel (9 tackles) and Ellis Hobbs (10 tackles), with Hobbs likely to play despite being listed as questionable with a wrist injury. Safety Eugene Wilson (hamstring) is also regarded as questionable. In the pass rush, end Richard Seymour (2.5 sacks) and outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (1 sack) will pose as the biggest problem for the Bengals to defend.

Quietly off to another productive start to 2006 is Cincinnati running back Rudi Johnson (288 rushing yards, 3 TD), who continues to keep opposing defenses honest with his hard work between the tackles. Johnson was limited to 47 yards on 19 carries against the Steelers last week, but went for 145 and two touchdowns on 26 totes versus the Browns the week before. In the continued absence of Chris Perry (foot/ankle), who will miss at least the team's first six games, third-down back Kenny Watson (52 rushing yards, 2 receptions) has done a good job. Watson carried three times for 35 yards in Pittsburgh a week ago.

Though run defense is still perceived as a Patriots strength, New England comes off a week in which they allowed the Broncos' Tatum Bell to amass 123 yards on 27 carries. New England should have an easier time against the run due to the battered state of the Cincinnati line, with nose tackle Vince Wilfork (13 tackles, 1 sack) and ends Seymour (16 tackles) and Ty Warren (24 tackles, 1 sack) looking to win the battle in the trenches. Warren led the Patriots with seven solo tackles against Denver. Making plays behind the linemen will be the job of inside linebackers Junior Seau (26 tackles) and Bruschi (9 tackles). Seau leads the Patriots in stops as Week 4 begins.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Bengals have looked supremely confident through the first three weeks of the season, prevailing by double-digits in a couple of road contests while also keeping a bitter rival, the Cleveland Browns, at arm's length in a potential trap game. One might expect Lewis and company to fall prey to overconfidence, but in a division where the Ravens and Steelers figure to fight for playoff berths until the bitter end, Cincinnati knows it can't afford to suffer from a lack of focus. The Bengals are simply more talented than the Patriots, and though New England will fight gamely, it lacks the personnel to stay with Cincinnati for 60 minutes. Look for more heroics from Palmer in a winning effort, and for Brady's frustration at his team's direction to show for a second consecutive week.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bengals 31, Patriots 23

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