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Despite Beating, U.S. Can Still Win Group

POSTED: 10:54 am EDT June 14, 2006

A 3-0 defeat in its World Cup opener against the Czech Republic left the U.S. national team's fans bitterly disappointed and had players and coaches taking shots at each other in the media.

Despite the uncertainty and rancor, the squad can still make it out of its four-team group and advance to the knockout round of the tournament. But it could use some help from the same Czech team that provided a thorough beating Monday.

Keeping all these scenarios straight might not be easy, be it's no worse than watching a supposedly good team get dismantled and befuddled on the world's biggest stage. (And we won't hit every permutation here.)

In the round-robin group stage, teams earn three points for a win and one for a draw. The two teams with the most points advance. If there are ties on points, the first tiebreaker is which team has the best goal differential. After that, it's head-to-head results.

If U.S. Wins Twice

As U.S. manager Bruce Arena pointed out, there are still six points available if the team can turnaround its tailspin and beat Italy and Ghana in matches on June 17 and 22, respectively.

Six points is often enough to go through, but it could still leave the U.S. going home.

Here's the easiest scenario for the U.S.: Both the Czechs and the U.S. win out. That would put the Czechs at 9 points, the U.S. at 6 and Italy with 3 from a win they already earned over Ghana. Poor Ghana would have zero, and the U.S. would move on (most likely to face tournament favorites Brazil, but any U.S. supporter would take that at this point).

Of course, if the Czechs draw with Italy and Ghana, the U.S. would win the group.

The flip side is the cruel circumstance in which the Yanks grab six points and still go home. That happens if the U.S. beats Italy and Ghana, and Italy beats the Czechs, who beat Ghana. In that three-way tie at 6 points, the U.S. would most likely lose out on goal differential, unless there are some blowouts.

Win And Draw

Even without two wins, it can still work out.

If the U.S. beats Italy and draws with Ghana, it will have four points. Czech wins over Ghana and Italy would leave the Czechs with nine points and winning easily. Ghana would have 1 and Italy 3. The U.S. would then be set to samba with Brazil (probably -- but you can analyze Group F on your own).

However, if Italy beats the Czechs in the last match, that would leave them on 6 points, eliminating the U.S.

Draw And Win

Let's say the U.S. regains a touch of form and draws with Italy, then beats Ghana, reversing 2002's win-draw-loss pattern.

Again, 4 points.

Italy would be at that same level going into the last day against the Czechs, and a draw there would put the Italians through. The Czechs, after a draw with Italy, would have either 4, 5 or 7 points, depending on their result against Ghana.

Being tied with the Czechs probably dooms the U.S., barring a major reversal of the goal differential, since they have the head-to-head advantage.

Two Draws

This could bring some measure of respect, depending on how the team plays, but it won't get them through to the next round. Two points beind what Italy and the Czechs already have pocketed (not to mention the point Italy would also get from the draw).

Four-Way Tie

Most of the above assumes that Ghana will lose to the Czech Republic on Saturday. If Ghana were to win that one while the U.S. beat Italy, that would leave all three teams tied on three points, setting up a dramatic last day that would cause nervous stomachs across three continents.

In short, though, the U.S. doesn't quite control its own destiny. But two wins leave it with a decent shot of playing in the knockout rounds.

Despite a nightmare start, the dream is still alive.

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