BOSTON -- Middlesex County Sheriff Jim DiPaola boils the debate over expanding the sale of wine in Massachusetts food stores down to a simple phrase: "Say no to milk and bologna."

Speaking at a rally of opponents of Question 1 earlier this month, Dipaola said those two items, frequently purchased by children at convenience stores, should not share shelf space with alcohol.

"Just like the chiefs of police, we're the ones in society that have to deal with the aftermath of underage drinking, of drunk driving," he said.

DiPaola is one of many voices joining in the debate, highlighted by television ads and public events, aimed at sinking the ballot initiative that would allow many new wine licenses for food stores and supermarkets around the state.

There are indications the campaign is working.

A poll by the Suffolk University Political Research Center suggested the lead enjoyed by supporters of Question 1 during the summer has evaporated.

The poll, conducted Oct. 3-5, showed 47 percent of likely voters in favor of allowing more food stores to sell wine, while 44 percent were opposed. In June, the same poll found 61 percent in favor and 31 percent opposed.

David Paleologos, director of the center, said the numbers should encourage the initiative's opponents.

"Right now the 'No' side is riding a very good trend," Paleologos said. "It's going to take some work to reverse that."

Question 1 would allow cities and towns to issue new wine-only licenses for grocery stores. Unlike current liquor licenses, which are limited to three per company, the wine licenses would allow large chains to sell wine in all their stores.

Supporters of the initiative, led by supermarkets such as Stop & Shop and Shaw's, said the new licenses would offer customers increased convenience and lower prices through competition.

Opponents, led by liquor retailers and distributors, said the new system would hurt local, independent liquor stores and lead to law enforcement problems, including increased underage drinking and drunken driving.

This week, the "No" campaign got a big boost when Eddie Jenkins, chairman of the state's Alcoholic Beverages Control Commission announced his opposition to the initiative, saying it would "undermine the system as a whole and make meaningful enforcement nearly impossible."

This month the "No on One" committee launched a television ad linking alcohol sales at grocery stores to increased automobile accidents. Opponents staged a rally at the Statehouse featuring elected officials and 27 Massachusetts police chiefs opposed to the initiative.

Somerville Police Chief Robert Bradley said making wine more available could increase underage drinking.

"It is a law enforcement issue," said Bradley. "We don't want to make it any easier for kids to get alcohol."

Mansfield Police Chief Arthur O'Neill said he worried about the strain monitoring the new wine outlets would place on police.

"The police would be spread very thin," O'Neill said.

Supermarket and liquor interests have poured money into opposing sides of the debate. Indications are that a wave of ads bought by both sides will set a new record for spending on a Massachusetts ballot question.

According to reports from the Office of Campaign and Political Finance, the "Yes on 1" campaign, spent over $2.7 million through Oct. 1 of this year, most of it in the last two weeks of September.

The largest single contributor to that group was Stop and Shop, which gave over $2 million.

The "No on One" campaign, which has many more individual contributors, spent $1.8 million this year through Oct. 1. Its largest contributor was United Liquors, a distributor.

More recent figures suggest that the total on the campaign, mostly for television ads, will approach $8 million.

Last week, the "No on One Committee" introduced a commercial crediting the state's strict liquor laws with preventing drunk driving deaths.

The ad cites a 2005 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration study placing Massachusetts' alcohol-related traffic fatality rate below the rate of the 34 states where alcohol is available at food stores.

Kim Hinden, spokeswoman for Yes on 1, acknowledged the report, but said demographics, better road conditions and good medical facilities in Massachusetts probably caused the low rate.

She said Massachusetts came out ahead of the same states in non-alcohol related traffic fatalities in the same study.

"The package stores and liquor lobby are trying to protect their monopoly," said Hinden. "This is not a public safety issue."

Another point of contention is the number of new wine licenses that would be issued if Question 1 passes in November.

Under the initiative, a food store would be eligible for a wine license if it sells fresh or processed meat, poultry, dairy products, eggs, fresh fruit, produce, baked goods, baking ingredients, canned goods and dessert items.

Opponents have suggested that as many as 2,800 new licenses could go to convenience stores, gas stations and drug stores that meet these requirements.

Supporters of Question 1 say local licensing boards, which would be responsible for issuing wine licenses, would not consider convenience stores eligible. They estimate less than 1,000 new licenses.

Some convenience stores already sell alcohol through traditional liquor licenses.

Der Singh, manager of the A1 Market, a convenience store in Brockton, said his store has had a license to sell wine and beer for 20 years.

"I am not worried about it," he said of more food stores selling alcohol. "There's a 7-Eleven down the street that already does."

But liquor store owners are worried. Stephen Racette of L G Liquors in Quincy, said his revenues have dropped by $1 million after a nearby Stop and Shop acquired a liquor license 10 years ago.

"I think a lot of stores are going to be in trouble," Racette said.

William Sarro, owner of Dub's Discount Liquors in Mansfield, said he thought the new licenses would compound the advantages enjoyed by big companies.

"I'm going to be OK," said Sarro. "The biggest stores are going to stay. But what about the little guy?"

Patrick Anderson is a graduate student with Boston University's Boston Statehouse Program. Other students in the program contributed to the reporting of the story.