AMHERST, Mass. -- Natural disasters are known to devastate areas without warning. Even the most accurate weather forecasts are subject to nature’s whims. There may, however, be a breakthrough in how we prepare for hurricane seasons.

Recent findings by researchers at UMass Amherst showed Boston-area hurricane activity to be aligned with the surface temperature of the ocean.

The quietest periods of hurricane activity occurred when the tropical North Atlantic ocean surface temperature was at its lowest levels, whereas stronger storms coincided with warmer waters, the study showed.

“There is obviously concern about how hurricane activity might change in the future," postdoctoral researcher Mark Besonen of the UMass Amherst Climate System Research Center said. “By studying how it has varied naturally in the past, we can better understand the underlying factors that affect hurricane development.”

Using sediments that were dropped in Lower Mystic Lake in parts of Medford and Arlington, researchers determined some centuries brought only two or three hurricanes to Boston, while others, such as the 13th Century, contained up to eight forceful events.

The incidence of hurricanes impacting the Boston area was higher in the 12th to 16th centuries than it was during the 17th to 19th centuries.

The UMass researchers traced Mystic Lake records to 1011 A.D.

"Long-term records, like those from Mystic Lake, provide climate modelers with a way of testing if their understanding of changes in hurricane activity over time are correct," Besonen said. "If their models can reproduce the past record correctly, we have more confidence in their simulations of future changes."

Not much is known about hurricane activity across history. Satellite capabilities began in the 1960s, and records before 1875 are spotty.

"Fortunately, we can turn to the geologic record to extend our understanding of hurricane activity further -- looking back 1,000 years or more," Besonen said.

There are other factors which contribute to hurricane frequency. A larger sample of locations is needed to apply the Mystic Lake findings to the entire North Atlantic basin, according to Besonen.

The results for the study were published July 24 in Geophysical Research Letters.