There are no polls to help predict who will win Grammy awards. Prognosticating who will be the night's big winners requires more James Carville-esque acumen than projecting the outcome of November elections.
Add to that the fact that each category has five nominees, and we're often talking about some real standoffs.
But the trick to coming up with the likely winners has more to do with strategy than discerning who really created the best art. It requires measuring an artist's current popularity, the demographics of their fanbase, their past musical achievements and lastly, the song or album for which they are nominated.
If this doesn't sound like an exact science, it isn't. It just means I have an excessive amount of free time to pay attention to it all and the smarty-pants ego to stick my neck out.
So, here's my list of predictions on who'll walk away with the most coveted phonograph statues this year:
Record Of The Year - Mary J. Blige "Be Without You"
- James Blunt "You're Beautiful"
- Dixie Chicks "Not Ready To Make Nice"
- Gnarls Barkley "Crazy"
- Corinne Bailey Rae "Put Your Records On"
The prediction: Mary J. Blige. For too long, Blige's career has inched forward but ultimately failed to achieve mass crossover appeal. To reach that end, she has guested on countless rap singles.
While these appearances have solidified her role as the go-to singer should the track's producer discover that Beyonce has a prior commitment, she hasn't received the attention and sales that she warrants. With "Be Without You," look for Blige to finally get some spotlight time.
Album Of The Year - Dixie Chicks "Taking The Long Way"
- Gnarls Barkley "St. Elsewhere"
- John Mayer "Continuum"
- The Red Hot Chili Peppers "Stadium Arcadium"
- Justin Timberlake "FutureSex/LoveSounds"
The prediction: Gnarls Barkley. It's about time Album Of The Year honored artistic merit and this year it will. Gnarls Barkley combined old-school production with vocalist Cee-Lo's soulful caterwauling to create a refreshingly engaging form of hip-hop.
This album should marshal a majority of the voters. It's doubtful that the Chili Peppers, Mayer or Timberlake will be able to match. "Taking The Long Way" isn't an especially strong album for the Dixie Chicks, but the group might slip in there as part of a protest vote. More on this later.
Song Of The Year - Mary J. Blige "Be Without You"
- Carrie Underwood "Jesus, Take The Wheel"
- Dixie Chicks "Not Ready To Make Nice"
- Corinne Bailey Rae "Put Your Records On"
- James Blunt "You're Beautiful"
The prediction: Dixie Chicks. Since the music industry at large votes for Grammy awards -- not just members of the country music establishment -- I think the Dixie Chicks will inspire a surprisingly powerful sympathy vote in this contest.
This all stems from the backlash that the trio has endured in recent years after head Chick Natalie Maines opened her mouth to speak out about President George W. Bush and the Iraq war instead of singing about that naughty Earl. Since then, the group's fortunes have been in a tailspin. Banned from radio and even some awards shows, the Chicks' ultimate fate is as murky as some enemy combatants in Guantanamo Bay.
With polls showing popular feeling solidly against the war, I suspect the industry will now feel safe to make a point about freedom of speech. Blige might steal this away should some country voters back Carrie Underwood.
Best New Artist - James Blunt
- Chris Brown
- Imogen Heap
- Corinne Bailey Rae
- Carrie Underwood
The prediction: Carrie Underwood. Just remember to say thanks to Paula, Carrie!
Best Male Pop Vocal Performance - James Blunt "You're Beautiful"
- John Legend "Save Room"
- John Mayer "Waiting On The World To Change"
- Paul McCartney "Jenny Wren"
- Daniel Powter "Bad Day"
The prediction: John Mayer. John Legend and James Blunt are solid contenders, but Mayer's song was last year's sleeper hit. It was simple and it made no grand allusions.
Like Motown, the song strove to put common people's thoughts into song. Unlike so many songs that people have tried to attach meaning to in the post-9/11 world, this one perfectly combines dumb optimism with honest passivity. Grammy voters will stand up and take notice.
Best Pop Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal - The Black Eyed Peas "My Humps"
- Death Cab For Cutie "I Will Follow You Into The Dark"
- The Fray "Over My Head (Cable Car)"
- Keane "Is It Any Wonder?"
- The Pussycat Dolls "Stickwitu"
The prediction: The Black Eyed Peas. As silly a song as "My Humps" is, it somehow morphed from dance-party hit into a semi-serious cultural touchstone. The song even had a star-turn in the sitcom "The Office," when it was the embarrassing ringtone for Steve Carell's character, the hopelessly lonely and awkward boss. Death Cab's track is a worthy adversary and was a huge smash in its own right, but likely can't overcome such a cultural monster.
Best Pop Vocal Album - Christina Aguilera "Back To Basics"
- James Blunt "Back To Bedlam"
- Elvis Costello & Allen Toussaint "The River In Reverse"
- John Mayer "Continuum"
- Justin Timberlake "FutureSex/LoveSounds"
The prediction: Christina Aguilera. With Britney mired in self-imposed mommy exile, Christina came charging back last year with a less frightening stage persona. By downplaying the sleazy sex kitten and emphasizing her vocal attributes, she won over many doubters as well as her maturing fans. Look for Elvis Costello and Allen Toussaint's collaboration to win a strong backing considering its emphasis is on New Orleans.
Best Dance Recording - Depeche Mode "Suffer Well"
- Goldfrapp "Ooh La La"
- Madonna "Get Together"
- Pet Shop Boys "I'm With Stupid"
- Justin Timberlake & Timbaland "Sexy Back"
The prediction: Justin Timberlake. "Sexy Back" was a terrible single, but I'm going to out on a limb and say some producer-types in the industry will like how ballsy it was of Timberlake and producer Timbaland to put out something so avant-garde.
Best Solo Rock Vocal Performance - Beck "Nausea"
- Bob Dylan "Someday Baby"
- John Mayer "Route 66"
- Tom Petty "Saving Grace"
- Neil Young "Lookin' For A Leader"
The prediction: Neil Young. Young's newer albums have become surprisingly weaker in recent years, but many Grammy voters will be able to get behind his anti-war songs. Tom Petty and Bob Dylan will likely cancel each other out, and look for Mayer to be honored in another category. Beck's song was probably the best on his last record, but it wasn't especially memorable.
Best Rock Performance By A Duo Or Group With Vocal - Coldplay "Talk"
- The Fray "How To Save A Life"
- The Raconteurs "Steady, As She Goes"
- U2 & Green Day "The Saints Are Coming"
- The Red Hot Chili Peppers "Dani California"
The prediction: U2 & Green Day. Who can compete with such a titanic pairing as U2
and Green Day together? The fact that their collaboration is a New-Wave-flavored homage to Katrina-ravaged New Orleans and you have all the ingredients for a Hallmark-worthy, touching TV moment. These Bono-led saints are coming to take their award.
Best Hard Rock Performance - Buckcherry "Crazy B****"
- Nine Inch Nails "Every Day Is Exactly The Same"
- System Of A Down "Lonely Day"
- Tool "Vicarious"
- Wolfmother "Woman"
The prediction: Wolfmother. Black Sabbath and Led Zeppelin might have done it first and better, but the success of Wolfmother's debut is an odd bit of karma for two heavy metal icons long slagged for stealing licks and lines from blues masters.
Now, they are the ones being ripped off. Wolfmother's "Woman" proves it doesn't matter who the originator was as long as the guitars roar and the rhythms are concussive. Need proof? Try to not head-bang while playing the song on the "Guitar Hero II" game.
Best Metal Performance - Lamb Of God "Redneck"
- Mastodon "Colony Of Birchmen"
- Ministry "Lies, Lies, Lies"
- Slayer "Eyes Of The Insane"
- Stone Sour "30/30-150"
The prediction: Mastodon. This should be a lopsided victory for Mastodon. The heavy-hitting prog-rock gods had last year's most complicated and lauded metal album. Their star-making track, "Colony Of Birchmen," even featured a cameo by Queens of the Stone Age frontman Josh Homme.
Meanwhile, the rest of the category is just a face-off between the old guard and the next generation. While young bands like Lamb of God and Stone Sour have generated increasing interest in the metal community, Slayer and Ministry have frankly seen better days.
Best Rock Song - Snow Patrol "Chasing Cars"
- The Red Hot Chili Peppers "Dani California"
- Neil Young "Lookin' For A Leader"
- Bob Dylan "Someday Baby"
- The Killers "When You Were Young"
The prediction: Snow Patrol. This competition really boils down to Snow Patrol versus the Red Hot Chili Peppers matchup, and it's doubtful that the L.A. funkateers' slick single can hold back an earnest, MySpace-fueled torch song like "Chasing Cars."
Snow Patrol's album was one of the unsung pop gems of 2006, and that track was the only portion of it that seemed to resonate with the record-buying public. Meanwhile, geezers like Bob Dylan and Neil Young as well as the Killers are only in here to honor past glories.
Best Rock Album - John Mayer Trio "Try!"
- Tom Petty "Highway Companion"
- The Raconteurs "Broken Boy Soldiers"
- The Red Hot Chili Peppers "Stadium Arcadium"
- Neil Young "Living With War"
The prediction: The Red Hot Chili Peppers. This should be an interesting contest. Mayer's album had an undervalued, catchy single, and the record as a whole demonstrated his musicality and an increasing seriousness creeping into his work.
The Raconteurs were a positive step forward for the White Stripes' Jack White and provided band co-leader Brendan Benson with some well-deserved attention. But "Stadium Arcadium" solidified that the Peppers can still be a musical force and re-establishes their enduring commercial power.
Best Alternative Music Album - Arctic Monkeys "Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not"
- The Flaming Lips "At War With The Mystics"
- Yeah Yeah Yeahs "Show Your Bones"
- Gnarls Barkley "St. Elsewhere"
- Thom Yorke "The Eraser"
The prediction: Gnarls Barkley. This will be an upset victory as the group, consisting of DJ Dangermouse and ex-Goodie Mob singer Cee-Lo, is also nominated in the "Best Urban/Alternative Performance" (see below).
Although the hip-hop category might be a better fit if we're going to demand that "alternative music" predicates guitar-centric music, none of the other competitors had the monster success that "St. Elsewhere" enjoyed. The loquacious Arctic Monkeys are likely heavily favored.
Best Urban/Alternative Performance - Gnarls Barkley "Crazy"
- Segio Mendes (featuring Erykah Badu & Will.i.am) "That Heat"
- Sergio Mendes (featuring The Black Eyed Peas) "Mas Que Nada"
- OutKast "Idlewild Blue (Don't Chu Worry 'Bout Me)"
- Prince "3121"
The prediction: Gnarls Barkley. This is a no-brainer. The award is designed to honor trailblazers in the R&B and hip-hop realm. and while OutKast and Prince would ordinarily be formidable competitors, "Crazy" was hip-hop's biggest crossover hit of 2006. Covered by everyone from the Raconteurs to Nelly Furtado, the song is likely unstoppable in this category.
Best R&B Song - Mary J. Blige "Be Without You"
- Prince "Black Sweat"
- Beyonce (featuring Jay-Z) "Deja Vu"
- Mariah Carey "Don't Forget About Us"
- India.Arie "I Am Not My Hair"
The prediction: Mary J. Blige. All we need here is poor Whitney Houston and we'd have a diva standoff (I think even Prince would admit he's a bit of diva, too). As it is, Blige shouldn't have too much trouble knocking out Beyonce and Mariah. Prince's nomination was principally to thank him for performing at the Grammys a couple of years ago and India.Arie's inclusion, whether it deserves recognition or not, is a tactic to demonstrate genre is much more inclusive than we know it is. Sorry, India.
Best R&B Album - Mary J. Blige "The Breakthrough"
- Jamie Foxx "Unpredictable"
- India.Arie "Testimony: Vol. 1, Life & Relationship"
- Lionel Richie "Coming Home"
- Prince "3121"
The prediction: Mary J. Blige. This should be a cakewalk for Blige so long as Grammy voters don't get starstruck by the prospect of voting for Jamie Foxx. I think if they did, this would be a surefire sign that the Apocalypse is coming.
Best Contemporary R&B Album - Beyoncé "B'Day"
- Chris Brown "Chris Brown"
- Janet Jackson "20 Y.O."
- Kelis "Kelis Was Here"
- Ne-Yo "In My Own Words"
The prediction: Beyonce. By its title, one would expect this category to be populated by Anita Baker or some lost Luther Vandross recordings. So, why are such vibrant artists like Beyonce and Kelis among others stuck in this backwater of a category?
One can guess it's to keep them away from the Blige awards behemoth. Although "B'Day" isn't the phenomenon that Beyonce's debut was, look for her enduring appeal to play a decisive role.
Best Rap Solo Performance - Busta Rhymes "Touch It"
- Missy Elliott "We Run This"
- Lupe Fiasco "Kick, Push"
- Mos Def "Undeniable"
- T.I. "What You Know"
The prediction: None. This is should be tightest contest of the evening. With T.I. and Lupe Fiasco, you have two young artists demonstrating remarkable skills, but whose success has flourished despite being largely unheralded in the larger sense.
At the same time, the pair must tangle with three veterans -- Mos Def, Missy Elliott and Busta Rhymes -- who themselves are chronically underappreciated. In this instance, the winner will likely be determined based on what particular song is being nominated.
Best Rap Song - Yung Joc "It's Goin' Down"
- Lupe Fiasco "Kick, Push"
- Ludacris (featuring Pharrell) "Money Maker"
- Chamillionaire (featuring Krayzie Bone) "Ridin"
- T.I. "What You Know"
The prediction: T.I. Timberlake's great comeback single was a laughable, avant-garde dud, but you can bet his Q Scores (Hollywood's annual likeability poll) still rank him well north of Tom Cruise. But Timberlake's award-worthy smile will have less impact in categories where "Sexy Back" is nominated, including Best Rap Song. In this category, Timberlake's collaboration with rapper T.I. should propel the hip-hop star to the top of the pile in this well-balanced competition.
Best Rap Album - Lupe Fiasco "Lupe Fiasco's Food & Liquor"
- Ludacris "Release Therapy"
- Pharrell "In My Mind"
- The Roots "Game Theory"
- T.I. "King"
The prediction: T.I. It's curious that the Roots and Pharrell were nominated in this category as both discs were significantly weaker than past efforts. They seem like ballasts to fill out this category. But as in the Best Rap Song competition, this will clearly be a head-to-head battle between T.I. and Lupe Fiasco. Again, I think the Justin Timberlake connection will nudge T.I. ahead.
Best Female Country Vocal Performance - Miranda Lambert "Kerosene"
- Martina McBride "I Still Miss Someone"
- LeAnn Rimes "Something's Gotta Give"
- Carrie Underwood "Jesus, Take The Wheel"
- Gretchen Wilson "I Don't Feel Like Loving You Today"
The prediction: Carrie Underwood. "American Idol" remains one of the few bright spots in the current pop-music landscape. The show plucks shameless wannabes and knights them as the next superstar. At least, that's how it's supposed to work. While Kelly Clarkson alone is the only former contestant to transform into a full-scale music star, Underwood has the same potential in the country arena. Her TV background and poppier leanings might be liabilities in some categories (like songwriting), but they give her greater name-recognition than some of her grittier rivals in this category.
Best Male Country Vocal Performance - Dierks Bentley "Every Mile A Memory"
- Vince Gill "The Reason Why"
- George Strait "The Seashores Of Old Mexico"
- Josh Turner "Would You Go With Me"
- Keith Urban "Once In A Lifetime"
The prediction: Keith Urban. The ever-jovial Vince Gill would ordinarily be the man to beat in this category, but Keith Urban has a potential Cinderella story in the making. Urban's career is still red-hot despite being sequestered in rehab for months to best a substance-abuse addiction. Meanwhile, his records are still flying off shelves. Add that Urban is newly married to a statuesque movie star and he's likely untouchable.
Best Country Song - Dierks Bentley "Every Mile A Memory"
- Gretchen Wilson "I Don't Feel Like Loving You Today"
- Carrie Underwood "Jesus, Take The Wheel"
- Alan Jackson "Like Red On A Rose"
- Rascal Flatts "What Hurts The Most"
The prediction: Alan Jackson. Yeah, white cowboy-hatted Jackson was shot down in several top categories at the County Music Association Awards in November, but he still commands a great deal of respect among his fellow musicians. In 2004, he won seven CMA awards alone. This should give him an edge in this race, especially since his likely closest competition -- Underwood -- relied heavily on Nashville songwriting pros.
Best Country Album - Dixie Chicks "Taking The Long Way"
- Alan Jackson "Like Red On A Rose"
- Little Big Town "The Road To Here"
- Willie Nelson "You Don't Know Me: The Songs Of Cindy Walker"
- Josh Turner "Your Man"
The prediction: Dixie Chicks. The implications of who wins this contest is bigger than who had the best album. What a blow it would be against the country music establishment for the music industry as a whole to award the Dixie Chicks with the Best Country Album award, essentially tossing back into their arms the group that some of them turned their backs on.
It's fair to say the band's latest album has met with an unsurprising chilly reception in Nashville. But what has kept it alive has been the Chicks' stature as anti-war icons and defenders of liberty in the eyes of Bush administration opponents. This campaign has positioned the Dixie Chicks to be a rallying point for Bush-bashing.
Best Contemporary Folk/Americana Album - Jackson Browne "Solo Acoustic Vol. 1"
- Rosanne Cash "Black Cadillac"
- Guy Clark "Workbench Songs"
- Bob Dylan "Modern Times"
- Mark Knopfler & Emmylou Harris "All The Roadrunning"
The prediction: Bob Dylan. Few of the other nominees in this category could ordinarily fend off the old master Dylan even if he wasn't in top form. It's likely that had Dylan submitted any number of the albums he recorded in the 1980s, he would still get this award.
However, "Modern Times" is stronger than he needed it to be and maintains his remarkable late-career renaissance. Luckily, Dylan also doesn't have to worry about any flash-in-the-pan youngsters getting in his way.
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